26 Straight: Mississippi State preview

Well I think every Michigan State fan had to sweat a little more than they would have liked on yesterday night. After driving home from Michigan I immediately turned on the selection show as I was back just in time for the start. On Friday it seemed like a sure thing that the Spartans would be playing in the NCAA Tournament for the 26th year in a row. This was obviously before Oregon, NC State, UAB, Duquesne, and Drake all won their conference tournament. These 5 teams were on the outside looking in and pushed teams who thought they’d be getting in out. The Spartans were not called in the first 3 regions and I was starting to stress. I thought to myself ‘is the committee going to ignore the NET’ … I mean MSU did end the regular season with 18 wins. It was finally announced that Michigan State will be playing in the West region as the 9 seed. The Spartans will face the 8 seed Mississippi State from the SEC (time TBD). The committee definitely didn’t do me any favors with this matchup… I guess I won’t be using “MSU” in this preview.

Now let’s get into this matchup between the Spartans and the Bulldogs. Mississippi comes in after a 21 win season in the SEC, one of the best leagues in all of college basketball. This is a very interesting matchup for the Spartans because in my opinion we match up well but I’ve been seeing mixed opinions. The Bulldogs are led by SEC 1st- team All Freshman guard, Josh Hubbard and Big man 6’11 Tolu Smith. Hubbard and Smith are the only 2 players who average double digits for the Bulldogs but they do have good role players. Cameron Matthews is a lockdown perimeter defender for Mississippi State and should be matched up with Malik Hall for the most part. Mississippi State averages about 1 more point per game than Michigan State does but allow 3 more on average. I expect Tom Izzo to have a great game plan for this matchup. I’d guess that they are really aggressive when guarding Josh Hubbard because he will take bad shots and turn it over more than his team would probably like. If you let a player like Hubbard get space, he can be a game wrecker. It has been reported that Tolu Smith has been dealing with an ankle injury. With the way that the Spartan bigs played in the Big 10 Tournament I am a lot less worried than I would have been.

Something that will determine the outcome of this game is turnovers. The Bulldogs turn the ball over once every 5 possessions. For a team that likes to run out in transition like Michigan State, this is great news. Another thing that bodes well for Michigan State is that Mississippi State is not a very good 3 point shooting team. This year the Spartans have suffered some tough losses due to other teams lighting it up from 3. It will be tough for the Spartans to score though as Mississippi State is ranked 20th in KENPOM adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are also a great offensive rebounding team so it is essential players are boxing out and catching the ball when they should, looking at you Mady. I think the difference between these 2 teams is in the supporting cast of each. I believe the Spartans have more reliable scoring options like Jaden Akins, AJ Hoggard, and Tre Holloman who can all create their own shot. If Josh Hubbard is off his game it is very hard for Mississippi State to get into a rhythm. Like they say “January, February, Izzo” I will be taking the Spartans to win this game as they have advanced to at least the 2nd round for 3 straight seasons including a Sweet 16 last year with most of the same core. If the Spartans win they will most likely play 1 seed in the region, North Carolina. The game times have not been released yet but Michigan State will be playing in Charlotte, NC for the first weekend. Go Green!